In an era defined by geopolitical volatility, rapid regulatory change, and heightened national security scrutiny, multinationals face unprecedented challenges in sustaining resilient global operations. In this high-stakes environment, proactive preparation, strategic foresight, and operational agility are essential.
Explore key takeaways from Baker McKenzie’s recent webinar outlining practical guidance on strengthening compliance, mitigating exposure amid ongoing disruption, and proactively safeguarding business continuity in the current business environment.
Introduction
National security considerations have permeated business and trade strategies, driving five key trends shaping current challenges and considerations for multinationals:
1. The proliferation of national security-related regulations. Sanctions and export controls, foreign investment regulation, data / cybersecurity, AI and ESG regulation, and tariffs all have a strong national security component.
2. The rapid pace of change. Both a quickly evolving geopolitical landscape and constantly shifting regulations are leaving business leaders concerned about volatility.
3. A complex compliance landscape. The challenges arising from the extraterritorial application of regulations are exacerbated by a conflicting myriad of local national security laws.
4. A shift from multilateralism. Multilateralism has given way to a complex patchwork of bilateral trade, investment, and M&A corridors. These bilateral routes are developing quickly, influencing trade patterns.
5. The diversification of businesses for resilience. Understanding overreliance as a vulnerability, business leaders are sacrificing traditional cost and time-driven operational efficiency for complexity to diversify supply chains across every aspect of their organizations.
Ultimately, companies can not only navigate these choppy waters but thrive in them. To do so requires a sustained focus and strategy to build robustness while also maintaining a nimbleness and agility of response, strong expertise, and a deep understanding of the local national security context to mitigate risk incurred by sudden policy shifts.
Sunny Mann, Global Chair
The US administration’s current national security strategy is reshaping the geopolitical landscape
In November 2025, the US administration released a national security strategy document outlining its current approach to national security and foreign affairs.
This strategy significantly differs from previous administrations, including President Trump’s first term, spurring major geopolitical risk and uncertainty both in the US and abroad.
Key differences are that this strategy:
- Does not expressly reference a US major power competition with Russia or China but rather adopts a more conciliatory tone toward competitors.
- Shows a greater unpredictability and flexibility of allegiance than previous administrations, in particular with a view to the US's European allies.
- Suggests a rebalancing of influence, with less parity between large and small nations.
- Advocates recognizing global and regional balances of power, implying less of a focus from the US on its worldwide footprint, instead acknowledging independent spheres of influence, with China and Russia for example.
- Increases US focus toward the Western hemisphere, particularly with regard to trade and immigration. Recent developments in Venezuela are in line with the US administration’s renewed focus on the Americas.
This approach underscores the United States’ ongoing shift toward prioritizing domestic concerns and interests. Internationally, this orientation has led to a notable move toward more selective and targeted engagement. In place of its long-standing emphasis on broadly promoting democracy abroad, the U.S. now favours a more hands-off posture, concentrating its efforts and interventions primarily on issues perceived as direct threats to national security within the framework of its “America First” policy.
Cyber and digital threats increasingly a national security priority for the US
Cyber and digital threats will continue to shape both organizational risk profiles and US national security priorities for the foreseeable future.
Cyber intrusions, digital economic espionage, and counterintelligence efforts are means for adversarial nation states or entities to access vital trade secrets, including those related to AI or other critical priorities; acquire sensitive data for counterintelligence or commercial purposes; or raise revenue for otherwise sanctioned countries or entities.
Society’s increasing digital dependence also opens up the potential for systemic, real-world impacts as cyber-attacks can disrupt transportation, telecommunications, food supply and other critical infrastructure.
With critical infrastructure overwhelmingly in private sector hands, US federal regulators now expect organizations to continuously strengthen their cyber resilience, prepare for incidents and robustly investigate when they occur.
In the US, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Department of Justice, and other federal agencies are placing an increased focus on private sector resilience. At the state level, state attorneys-general are concerned about data access and use, including from foreign countries or entities. And many members of the US Congress also view cybersecurity vulnerabilities or failures as matters of public interest that require oversight.
In line with this heightened scrutiny, organizations, particularly those in critical infrastructure, need to shift their cyber and data strategies from a response-based mindset and embrace proactive risk assessment and resilience to minimize enforcement risk.
Bolstering international trade strategies against geopolitical uncertainty
Customs and tariffs
National security concerns are permeating and influencing trade policy via trade disputes, tariffs and threats to existing free trade agreements (FTAs). The speed and scale of disruption, and the investment required for companies to combat this, equally applies in the customs context.
Tariffs have become a board-level concern, increasing business costs and uncertainty and making it difficult to plan.
The recent US Supreme Court ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, for example, was followed immediately by the President's announcement that he would use other legal authorities to impose tariffs.
In this fast-moving environment, both keeping up with and anticipating changes has become paramount. These challenges are also coupled with customs reforms in many jurisdictions, such as the EU, and the strengthening of control through customs enforcement. Such changes have particularly impacted the e-commerce sector.
To bolster their trade strategies against uncertainty, companies are taking action and:
- Increasing their investment in resources, including technology and people, to enable quick and informed decision-making to effectively respond to tariff changes as well as to trade disputes, threats to FTAs or new FTAs. Companies need both reliable data and the right expertise to weigh the impact of imposed tariffs against the potential impacts of making particular changes within the supply chain. They can then explore mitigation avenues such as considering product origins and classifications or conducting customs valuations to inform their supply chain diversification strategies.
- Strengthening customs governance from a strategy and risk management perspective. As organizations consider optimal reporting lines to ensure comprehensive customs governance, they need to ensure the right stakeholders within the organization are involved, account for customs compliance obligations and heightened enforcement risk and ensure sufficient resources and visibility of the customs function. Close alignment with the tax function is also important given that customs enforcement issues can have ripple effects on a company’s tax profile. With customs enforcement activity expected to intensify, companies need to prepare for more frequent investigations and audits, reduced tolerance for compliance failures and heightened scrutiny around supply chains and documentation. Embedding proactive compliance into customs governance structures is therefore critical.
- Strategically looking beyond risks into potential opportunities. When assessing the impact of tariffs, businesses have the opportunity to mitigate impacts, including by seeking trade with new countries with FTAs, shifting manufacturing locations, optimizing customs valuations of their products or conducting a review of customs procedures to encourage local manufacturing.
Sanctions and export controls
Ongoing and new geopolitical tensions, the departure from more traditional multilateral trade regimes and a subsequent increased focus on domestic economic security by the US and others have led to a shift in the types of sanctioned targets, specific risk areas and sanctions tools deployed.
Companies are also having to thread the "compliance needle" as other countries impose their own, often divergent, sanctions in retaliation.
The US administration moving its focus away from Russia and China is one example of such changes. The US has already pulled back on several disruptive export control measures targeted against China, and sanctions and export control activity is expected to remain relatively quiet in this space.
In Venezuela, while the framework of US sanctions remains in place, their overall focus has shifted significantly in recent weeks and may continue to evolve gradually as the country adapts to developments. These changes authorize certain oil exploration, production, and related activities, subject to a number of specific conditions and, in some cases, special review by US authorities.1 Additionally, on January 29, 2026, the Venezuelan National Assembly approved amendments to the Law on Hydrocarbons, expanding opportunities for private participation in oil sector activities and modifying the tax regime applicable to oil companies, among other significant reforms.
With the situation rapidly evolving, access the latest information on what companies considering operating or investing in Venezuela need to know on our Venezuela Brief hub.
In terms of sanctions toolkits, while blocking sanctions are still the norm, companies are equally likely to see tariffs or trade-adjacent restrictions such as restrictions on capital outflows, outbound investment and sensitive data transfers to foreign adversaries.
Overall, this dynamic and uncertain landscape is requiring companies to build their compliance and geopolitical risk muscles and view potential opportunities and risks through a multi-jurisdictional lens.
Diversification is also necessary as companies increasingly adopt a risk-first—rather than cost-first—mindset. Leaning into agility means organizations will need to embed sanctions and export control risks into strategic corporate development and look closely at their contracting arrangements so that they can move quickly when geopolitical shocks do occur.
To stay in the know on the latest developments, visit our Global Sanctions and Export Controls Blog and Global Import Blog
What’s next?
As companies seek to bolster their operations against geopolitical disruption and seek emerging opportunities, there are key actions they can take to navigate the evolving landscape with confidence. Companies should:
- Develop contingency plans and strategies with in-house lawyers and outside counsel that account for an expanded risk profile.
- Account not only for immediate legal risk but consider the long-term impacts and how the external risk environment might change.
- Conduct proper due diligence and proactively identify trusted external advisers.
- Ensure a comprehensive understanding of the local laws, policies and nuances.
- Consider their organization’s individual risk profile and scenario plan for specific impacts.
- Ensure the legal function is closely tied to business strategy.
1 Paul Amberg et al., OFAC Issues General Licenses Authorizing Certain Activities Involving the Venezuelan Oil and Gas Sector, Global Sanctions & Export Controls Blog, February 16, 2026.