Our latest report, The Future of UK Trade: Merged Realities of Brexit and COVID-19, explores how the pandemic, coupled with an eventual deal or No-Deal Brexit, will impact the bottom-line of UK businesses and the economy. Together with Oxford Economics and insights from Baker McKenzie's experts, this report quantifies how a deal versus a No-Deal Brexit will affect four UK goods manufacturing sectors — automotive, consumer, healthcare and technology — as well as UK GDP over the next decade.

Our research reveals the real costs of both Brexit and the COVID-19 crisis in the long-term, forecasting a potential GBP 134 billion (6%) reduction in UK GDP over the next decade as compared with 2019, as a result of the impact of the pandemic and a potential No-Deal Brexit. This sobering statistic highlights the long-term, dual challenges of Brexit and COVID-19 for many businesses and the vital need to prepare for both deal and no-deal scenarios.

The report also explores some crucial issues for the business community, including the impact of non-tariff barriers on post-Brexit Britain, as well as the anticipated productivity gap as a result of the UK’s change in approach to migration.

Meanwhile, as Brexit discussions begin to move beyond the EU, we consider where the best opportunities exist for trade with third countries — one possible answer to the losses associated with departing the Single Market.

Future of UK Trade


The global nature of our Firm and the clients we represent means that we have a number of experts who can provide advice that is tailored to your organization and the challenges that you face. If you would like help navigating the complicated, evolving landscape as you prepare your business for the end of the transition period on 1 January 2021, please contact a member of our dedicated team of specialists or your usual Baker McKenzie contact.

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